In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
India's trade deficit with China neared $100 billion in FY25, amid escalating concerns of dumping, data released by the commerce department on Wednesday showed. Chinese imports rose by 11.5 per cent to $113.45 billion, while outbound shipments to the neighbouring country saw 14.5 per cent contraction to $14.2 billion.
All about IPL 2025 which kicks off on March 22, Saturday.
The depreciation in rupee may pose a problem for students who have taken loans from Indian lenders.
Foreign investors have injected close to Rs 33,700 crore in domestic equities in this month so far primarily due to interest rate cut in the US and resilience of the Indian market. This also marks the second highest inflow in a month in this year so far, the last one being in March, when Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) infused Rs 35,100 crore, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, the trend of FPIs buying is likely to continue in the coming days, V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said.
Amid fast-depleting forex reserves, the Finance Ministry on Wednesday signalled that it was not in favour of selling the dollar to defend any particular level of the rupee. "Let it (rupee) reach whatever levels it has to reach. We can't fritter away reserves on defending some artificial, imaginary rate of exchange," a senior finance ministry official told Business Standard. Forex reserves declined to a near two-year low of $545.65 billion as on September 16, down $85.88 billion from the level that existed on February 25, a day after Russia invaded Ukraine.
With the Indian rupee falling almost 7 per cent against the US dollar since January 2013, Indian students in universities abroad or those planning to go abroad this year will have to increase their budget by at least 10 per cent compared to what it would have been late last year.
The week's losses wiped out investor wealth worth Rs 18.43 trillion, with the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms now at Rs 441 trillion.
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia is unlikely to have any major impact on the Indian rupee and the forex volatility in the country (USD/INR) has been much less now as compared to the global financial crisis which took place in 2008, SBI said in its Ecowrap research report. The report said that though the conflict between the two CIS nations may drag on for now, it is expected that the USD/INR, the most tracked pair in the local forex market, will trade at an elevated zone. But ideally, the expected average range of the rupee is expected to be in the band Between Rs 76 to Rs 78 to the USD with an appreciated bias.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) declined after the information technology (IT) major reported a 1.3 per cent sequential drop in net profit for the March quarter, prompting several brokerages to cut their target prices. The TCS stock fell as much as 1.26 per cent during the day to Rs 3,205 per share.
Senior Congress leader Shashi Tharoor said on Tuesday that judging by US President Donald Trump's initial statements, there is never going to be a dull moment during his presidency, and expressed hope that the Indo-US ties are in a "good shape". He also raised concerns about the potential impact of Trump's policies on trade and illegal migration on India. Tharoor said that there might be pressure on India to either remove tariffs on American goods or suffer high tariffs on Indian exports to America.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and news flow on tariffs are expected to influence movement in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for 'Mahashivratri'.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
A US plane carrying 119 illegal Indian immigrants is expected to land at Amritsar airport on February 15, the second such batch of Indians deported by the Trump administration as part of a crackdown on illegal immigration. The plane is expected to land around 10 pm on Saturday. The 119 deportees include 67 from Punjab, 33 from Haryana, eight from Gujarat, three from Uttar Pradesh, two each from Goa, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, and one each from Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir. Another US plane carrying deportees is also expected to land on February 16. This development comes days after a US military aircraft carrying 104 illegal Indian immigrants landed at the Amritsar airport last week. Most of the deportees hailing from Punjab said they wanted to migrate to the US for a better life for their families. However, their dreams were shattered when they were caught at the US border and brought back in shackles. The Trump administration has launched a crackdown against illegal immigrants since taking office, leading to the deportation of many people who entered the US through illegal means. Several political leaders in Punjab have questioned the landing of US aircraft in Amritsar, with Punjab Finance Minister Harpal Singh Cheema alleging that the BJP-led Central government wants to defame Punjab. The Punjab government has formed a special investigation team to probe the issue of illegal human trafficking following the deportation of Indian citizens domiciled in Punjab from the US. The SIT has so far registered 10 FIRs against fraudulent immigration consultants based on statements from deportees.
India's politicians need to do a better job of managing the economy: Inflation control, productivity improvement, etc, asserts T N Ninan.
Exporters on Thursday sought a fund of Rs 750 crore for three years to tap USD 25 billion export potential in the US, aiming to seize potential opportunities that may arise as the US President-elect, Donald Trump, has threatened to impose high tariffs on Chinese goods. In its pre-Budget meeting with the finance ministry, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President Ashwani Kumar has also demanded extension of the five per cent Interest Equalisation Scheme (IES).
'Retail investors have to stick to their asset allocation plans and continuously do portfolio reviews.'
The stocks are largely from sectors such as chemicals, finance and cement, which struggled earlier but the worse seems to be behind them.
The Indian rupee is expected to trade between 80 and 84 against dollar in the first three months of 2023 with support from overseas inflows though worsening current account deficit (CAD) and reduced interest rate differential between the US and India pose challenges. According to a Business Standard Poll of 10 participants, most said the rupee could gain strength in January due to foreign inflows, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not expected to allow the currency to depreciate ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1. The rupee depreciated 10.15 per cent in 2022, its worst performance since 2013 as the war in Europe and the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve prompted investors to flee emerging markets.
Lower crude oil prices and a rally in domestic equities restricted the losses to some extent, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened weak at 79.50 per dollar.
'My advice: Don't mark your portfolio to market every day. Focus on survival.'
India's stock markets are experiencing a shift in investor sentiment, with a 30 per cent surge in Chinese stocks, prompting investors to move money from domestic markets to China. This reversal of fortunes is a notable change from the past three years, where China's losses benefited India.
Major Indian carmakers are preparing for sluggish domestic PV sales growth of just 1-2 per cent in FY26.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato cracked nearly 7 per cent. Power Grid, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma and UltraTech Cement were the other major laggards. In contrast, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consultancy Services and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
Foreign investors have poured Rs 57,359 crore into Indian equities in September, making it the highest inflow in nine months, mainly driven by a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. With this infusion, foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs) investment in equities has surpassed the Rs 1 lakh crore mark in 2024, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI inflows are likely to remain robust, driven by global interest rate easing and India's strong fundamentals.
The Enforcement Directorate said on Monday that it had conducted search operations at four locations in Mumbai and Delhi as part of its money laundering investigation into an alleged Rs 4,500 crore (Rs 45 billion) fraud by Pancard Clubs Limited and others, in which more than 5 million investors have been duped.
The rupee depreciated further by 13 paise to hit a new life-time closing low of 82.30 against the US dollar on Friday as a firm American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and elevated crude oil prices sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 82.19, then fell further to 82.43. It finally settled at an all-time low of 82.30 against the American currency, registering a decline of 13 paise over its previous close.
For the first time, the rupee declined to the low level of 80 against the US dollar in intra-day spot trading on Monday before ending the session 16 paise lower at 79.98 amid a surge in crude oil prices and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.76 against the greenback but lost ground to touch the psychological low mark of 80 against the American currency. The local unit clawed back some lost ground and closed at 79.98, registering a fall of 16 paise over its previous close.
The bank made a Rs 67 crore net profit, up 21% from the previous year. Its deposits grew 8%, the loan book 10%. Net bad loans dropped from 7.53% to 6.07%. So why was the banker, who headed the bank, not promoted?
India's foreign exchange reserves increased to $604 billion as on December 1, surpassing the $600 billion mark after a gap of about four months. The forex reserves were last above the $600 billion mark on August 11 this year. "India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $604 billion as on December 1, 2023.
Since Sanjay Malhotra took office as governor in December, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a more accommodative stance, which bodes well for banking and the economy as they navigate a growth slowdown, according to analysts.
From the 30 blue-chip pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finserv, Nestle and ICICI Bank were the biggest gainers. State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Adani Ports, Zomato, UltraTech Cement and HCL Tech were among the laggards.
Apart from the emotional value attached to buying gold, the yellow metal offers protection against inflation, interest rate spikes, currency and geopolitical risks, says Anamika Pareek.
Escalating trade tensions amid a tariff war after Donald Trump took over as President of the United States (US) could adversely impact global growth and fuel inflation, an article on the "State of the Economy" in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monthly bulletin said.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
The rupee fell by 41 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.36 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.04 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.02 and a low of 79.38. It finally settled at 79.36 (provisional), down 41 paise over its previous close.
The rupee is currently hovering around Rs 65/USD at 2-year lows.
The sharp pullback in mid and smallcap stocks signals a cooling-off period in segments that previously attracted considerable investor interest.
The rupee weakened by 14 paise to close at a new lifetime low of 79.59 against the US dollar on Tuesday as a strong greenback overseas and persistent foreign fund outflows continued to weigh on investor sentiment. This comes a day after the RBI announced measures for international trade settlement in rupees. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened weak at 79.55 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.53 and a low of 79.66.
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